Winning the M&A Game in a Volatile Market

While others wait for the storm to pass, the boldest executives are already closing deals inside it.

The signals are contradictory. Interest rates are easing — but unevenly. AI is creating new competitive urgency — while also inflating acquisition targets. Geopolitical tension keeps boards on edge — as pent-up deal pipelines strain toward release. Tariffs come and go with the news cycle.

And yet the deals keep getting done.

They're not just getting done. They're accelerating.

J.P. Morgan's annual global M&A outlook, titled From Turbulence to Transformation, projects 2026 to be a record year for deal activity.

According to Reuters and LSEG data, 2025 closed as the second-best year on record for M&A, with total deal value surpassing $4.8 trillion — achieved despite a volatile start, shifting trade policies, and significant market disruption in the first half of the year driven by tariff uncertainty.

Hussein Malik, Head of Global Research at J.P. Morgan, has stated that the firm expects the global economy to remain resilient in 2026, with AI investment continuing to drive market dynamics and support growth — a pro-cyclical dynamic that is providing a meaningful tailwind for deal activity even as central banks shift from easing to holding rates at elevated levels.

That raises a question worth contemplating. If the environment is this uncertain, why are so many executives moving forward?

The answer isn't that they've stopped seeing risk. They've started pricing it differently.

The Shift from Hesitation to Calculated Intent

When markets are predictable, every competitor sees the same path. When markets are volatile, the path belongs to those with the clearest vision and the most disciplined preparation.

That's the fundamental insight driving the current wave of activity. The executives moving aren't dismissing the noise. They're learning to separate it from the signal — and act on the signal.

Anu Aiyengar, Global Head of Advisory and M&A at J.P. Morgan, told Reuters in January 2026 that the old drivers of deal activity — economic optimism and excess capital — have been replaced by something more structural. "We are in a world where the level of shocks to the system and the sources of shocks to the system are very broad. It's technology disruption, it's AI, supply chain, it's geopolitical risk, it's oil, it's energy, it's all of it." Her conclusion: "Companies who have the scale are able to withstand that level of volatility better because you have more levers to pull."

Winston Churchill captured the underlying disposition this demands in a 1954 remark that remains one of the most concise case statements for forward-leaning leadership: "For myself I am an optimist — it does not seem to be much use being anything else."

That's not blind confidence. It's a chosen orientation — one that leads to action while others wait for a clarity that may never fully arrive.

The Data Behind the Momentum

The numbers confirm what the boardroom conversations are signaling.

A Bain & Company survey of 300 M&A executives found that 80% expect to sustain or increase deal activity in 2026, citing improved macroeconomic conditions and a growing backlog of private equity and venture capital assets awaiting exit.

According to PitchBook, the total value of global deal activity surged nearly 40% in 2025 to a record $4.9 trillion, surpassing the previous high set in 2021.

The KPMG 2026 M&A Deal Market Study, drawing on 300 US corporate and private equity dealmakers (and a broader 700 globally), found that 75% of PE dealmakers expect higher M&A volumes in 2026. Among corporate leaders, 57% anticipate increased deal activity.

Even in the middle market, J.P. Morgan's 2026 Business Leaders Outlook found that 39% of executives now cite M&A as a growth strategy for the coming year — up from 31% the prior year — with strategic partnerships up to 49% from 43%.

These are not marginal shifts. They represent a meaningful reorientation toward inorganic growth even among companies that have historically moved cautiously.

McKinsey & Company's 2026 M&A Trends: Navigating a rapidly rebounding market report identifies four forces sustaining the momentum: dealmaking as a direct response to disruption, the search for new growth sources, continued preference for scale, and portfolio streamlining under uncertainty.

Why the Bold Are Moving Now

Look closely at the transactions defining 2026 and a pattern emerges. These are not speculative bets. They are structural necessities — driven by three forces that are keeping the deal engine running regardless of mixed economic signals.

The Race for Technology Capability. Technology is no longer a department; it's the operating architecture of the modern enterprise. Companies are acquiring smaller, more agile players to close gaps in AI infrastructure, data architecture, and digital capability faster than organic development allows.

Supply Chain Sovereignty. In a world of splintering global trade blocs, resilience has replaced pure efficiency as the primary goal. M&A is being used to secure domestic footprints and take control of critical inputs before competitors do.

Scale as a Shield. Larger organizations command higher valuation multiples and have better access to private credit markets. Consolidation is being used to build the balance sheet strength required to weather future volatility — and the market is explicitly rewarding it.

As the Goldman Sachs 2026 Global M&A Outlook notes, volatility never dissipates entirely, but it becomes navigable with improved clarity. CEO sentiment has strengthened in turn, fueling an environment increasingly defined by what the report calls "dream deals" — acquisitions where industry leaders pursue new capabilities that power the next phase of growth.

David Solomon, Chair and CEO of Goldman Sachs, speaking at the UBS Financial Services Conference in February 2026, described the current environment as a "top decile" opportunity for dealmaking, noting that strategic acquirers had shifted from outright rejection to active consideration of large-scale transactions previously considered too risky.

How M&A in a Volatile Market Is Repricing Risk

One of the most consequential changes in M&A in a volatile market is how dealmakers are approaching valuation. In previous cycles, volatility led to a freeze. Buyers and sellers couldn't agree on price because neither could agree on the future.

Today, that gap is narrowing — not because the world has gotten simpler, but because leaders have gotten more sophisticated.

Instead of searching for a single "correct" price, executives are building deals that account for multiple futures. As TD Securities notes in its M&A Outlook 2026, deal structures are increasingly incorporating earn-outs, contingent value rights, and flexible capital arrangements to bridge the divide between current reality and future potential. The mindset has shifted from "buying a company" to "acquiring a capability" — and that reframe changes the entire negotiation.

Tom Miles, Global Co-Head of M&A at Morgan Stanley, captured the tailwind behind this shift in his firm's 2026 Global M&A Activity Outlook: "A more predictable regulatory backdrop and years of pent-up consolidation demand unlocked a wave of large-cap deals, making 2025 the second most active year in the past decade. In 2026, a multi-year rebound in activity is set to continue, helped by more certainty on policies and an IPO revival."

That's the optimistic read.

Andrea Guerzoni, Global Vice Chair of EY-Parthenon, offers the more measured counterpoint — and it's equally instructive. Writing in the EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook 2026, Guerzoni states: "2026 is not going to be a year of certainty, and CEOs know this. The winners will be those who actively rewire their capital allocation, navigate geopolitical complexity and focus on technology-led M&A to fashion flexible, resilient portfolios that are built not only to absorb further potential market shocks, but also to maximize opportunities presented by ongoing market volatility."

Both views are right. The window is open — and walking through it requires both conviction and discipline.

What the Hesitant Middle Is Missing

Many organizations remain in a holding pattern. Their reasoning often seems sound on the surface — uncertainty in rates, geopolitical shifts, earnings visibility. Beneath those concerns, though, lies a deeper issue.

They are waiting for clarity that may not arrive.

Markets rarely offer perfect visibility. By the time conditions feel fully stable, the most attractive assets are often already taken. The hesitant middle consistently underestimates three realities.

Clarity is a competitive resource. Leaders who move early shape the market. They influence pricing, secure premium assets, and define industry direction. Their competitors inherit what's left.

Delay carries compounding cost. Each quarter without action may widen the gap between market leaders and followers. Capabilities that could have been acquired must instead be built internally — at greater cost and over longer timelines.

Decisive action signals organizational health. Employees, investors, and partners read bold moves as evidence of strategic clarity and leadership confidence. Prolonged hesitation sends the opposite message.

Suzanne Kumar, Executive Vice President of Bain & Company's Global M&A and Divestiture Practice, made the stakes explicit in an interview with CNBC: "Leaders across industries recognize that many traditional business models have reached the limits of their historical growth engines. Companies urgently need to reinvent themselves to get out ahead of the big forces of technology disruption, a post-globalization economy, and shifting profit pools."

Scenario Planning as a Competitive Tool

The solution for organizations in the hesitant middle is not a sudden leap into an unprepared transaction. It's rigorous, purpose-led scenario planning — the discipline of asking "What if?" until the answers produce a roadmap for "What now?"

Top-performing firms are currently evaluating their portfolios with a sharper lens of honesty. They're divesting non-core assets to fund strategic acquisitions. They're building integration capabilities before they need them. And they're designing deal structures that hold up across multiple economic outcomes rather than a single optimistic scenario.

Paul Samuelson, the Nobel Prize-winning economist, offered a principle that applies directly: "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." The executives moving purposefully in M&A in a volatile market aren't chasing excitement. They're following a disciplined plan.

This is also, at its core, a leadership challenge.

Reid Hoffman, Co-Founder of LinkedIn and Partner at Greylock Partners, has described the entrepreneurial condition in terms that translate directly to executive decision-making under uncertainty: "An entrepreneur is someone who will jump off a cliff and assemble an airplane on the way down." Corporate leaders aren't operating with that degree of free-fall — but the underlying principle holds. Meaningful progress often requires committing before all variables are known.

Beyond the Transaction — The Role of Contextual Alpha

Peter Orszag, CEO and Chair of Lazard, has built his firm's entire advisory identity around a concept he calls contextual alpha — defined in Lazard's 2025 M&A Review and 2026 Outlook as "the broad judgment required to navigate the macroeconomic, geopolitical, regulatory, and sector-specific factors that shape transactions and help leaders see beyond what the world sees today."

This is precisely what separates successful M&A in a volatile market from failed M&A in a volatile market. Financial modeling remains essential — but it isn't sufficient. The deals that create lasting value in this environment are the ones where the human dimensions are addressed with the same rigor as the financial ones: cultural integration, purpose alignment, leadership continuity, and strategic timing.

The deals being done today are the foundations of the industry leaders of tomorrow. The question is whether your organization will be among them.

Partnering for Strategic Growth

Navigating the complexities of acquisitions requires more than financial acumen — it requires a partner who understands the strategic architecture of your business. Aspirations Consulting Group provides M&A advisory services designed for the needs of middle-market and Fortune 1000 executives. From initial scenario planning and deal structuring to post-merger integration and capital architecture, we help you convert market volatility into durable advantage. Schedule a confidential consultation to discuss your growth objectives at https://www.aspirations-group.com.

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